Friday, March 2, 2012
Towerstream buys Dragonwave backhaul
Towerstream has used Dragonwave in the past. Towerstream recently purchased more units from Dragonwave for the first time in at least 4 months. Backhaul spending is gaining interest as Clearwire and others boost network capacity and performance.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Magic Software, MGIC, gaining traction
Magic Software, MGIC, has landed a carrier deal. Kddi, a leading Japanese Telecom company pushing to grow its domestic and global business services, will use Magic Software platform to "push" Salesforce.com's enterprise platform to mobile devices. As I said before, we will see acceleration of these services because they boost employee productivity with very little investment.
You can read my earlier post on MGIC to see what the balance sheet and revenue profiles look like. As I said before, I think, at a minimum, the value of MGIC should be in the 7's (slow growth economy) to as high as the 20's (high growth economy).
You can read my earlier post on MGIC to see what the balance sheet and revenue profiles look like. As I said before, I think, at a minimum, the value of MGIC should be in the 7's (slow growth economy) to as high as the 20's (high growth economy).
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Towerstream $twer presenting at Deutsche Bank
Towerstream's Jeff Thompson (CEO) is presenting right now. They are still seeing acquisitions as very lucrative right now. The core business is performing very well. New legislation to free up spectrum will take 10yrs to deploy. Phase I Towerstream can take the network and real estate assets and offer a WiFi offload products to as much as 8 different carriers in a shared resource model. Phase II, will be to buildout small cell technology not utilizing fiber, but rather ethernet. It will not be until next year that the small cell products will be available for a multi carrier program. In data oasis's like Times Square, the network is outperforming LTE on latency, upload, and download.
Jeff stated that they have signed up new clients on SmartFi and that he predicts it will ramp faster than the core business. Acquisitions are still much better than greenfield. Greenfield can take upto 3-4 years to ramp up to where they would like.
They are in deep talks with carrier offload program and its accellerating due to the spectrum problem.
Jeff stated that they have signed up new clients on SmartFi and that he predicts it will ramp faster than the core business. Acquisitions are still much better than greenfield. Greenfield can take upto 3-4 years to ramp up to where they would like.
They are in deep talks with carrier offload program and its accellerating due to the spectrum problem.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Oclaro, $OCLR, CFO Turrin speaks at Morgan Stanley Conference
Oclaro's CFO Jerry Turrin spoke tonight at the Morgan Stanley Tech, Media, and Telco conference tonight.
You can listen here: http://investor.oclaro.com/events.cfm
Jerry was interviewed by Ehud Gelblum, telco analyst at MS. Jerry begins by talking about the floods impact on revenue in 2011 which ended up being a sluggish year for telco spending. Jerry expects revenue to be at about $110m by end of June quarter and, he said, "we are in process of matching out expenses to that level so that would be about breakeven for us." Last quarter we were at $86m and that was because of the capacity issues caused by the floods.
Next he was asked about demand. So if demand is the same as when the floods happened, then when revenue levels dropped, you should see some backlog, unless your customers went elsewhere. Jerry says his customer want to restore share. "speaking on Thailand, I don't see anything on products that suggest a profound share change and if you think about our business, they tend(customers) to have multiple sources of supply and tend to have a well managed supply chain, where they've got the right balance, and they want to get back to the right balance they had going into the floods, its in their interest because they have optimized their suppliers. And we think it gets right back to normal.
Interviewer says "So, in the June quarter, there should be some backlog"?
"logic dictates we should see a little bit of backlog", and in going from $85m to$110m runrate as June quarter, "I believe we get there, and I believe we get there before I predict that we get there."
Oclaro will collect business continuation insurance and interruption insurance to offset some of the capex spend to get up to capacity. Also, Jerry mentions they are due insurance proceeds over the next several quarters to reimburse lost revenue, lost inventory, and damaged equipment. Oclaro is also negotiating to sell a plant in China and will get a net 30-40 million which will help their balance sheet.
In summary, I think Oclaro has a set of customers that like doing business with Oclaro. I think March quarter earnings will beat, probably not by much, but I think they guide above $110m. I think this represents a great risk reward profile.
JWells
You can listen here: http://investor.oclaro.com/events.cfm
Jerry was interviewed by Ehud Gelblum, telco analyst at MS. Jerry begins by talking about the floods impact on revenue in 2011 which ended up being a sluggish year for telco spending. Jerry expects revenue to be at about $110m by end of June quarter and, he said, "we are in process of matching out expenses to that level so that would be about breakeven for us." Last quarter we were at $86m and that was because of the capacity issues caused by the floods.
Next he was asked about demand. So if demand is the same as when the floods happened, then when revenue levels dropped, you should see some backlog, unless your customers went elsewhere. Jerry says his customer want to restore share. "speaking on Thailand, I don't see anything on products that suggest a profound share change and if you think about our business, they tend(customers) to have multiple sources of supply and tend to have a well managed supply chain, where they've got the right balance, and they want to get back to the right balance they had going into the floods, its in their interest because they have optimized their suppliers. And we think it gets right back to normal.
Interviewer says "So, in the June quarter, there should be some backlog"?
"logic dictates we should see a little bit of backlog", and in going from $85m to$110m runrate as June quarter, "I believe we get there, and I believe we get there before I predict that we get there."
Oclaro will collect business continuation insurance and interruption insurance to offset some of the capex spend to get up to capacity. Also, Jerry mentions they are due insurance proceeds over the next several quarters to reimburse lost revenue, lost inventory, and damaged equipment. Oclaro is also negotiating to sell a plant in China and will get a net 30-40 million which will help their balance sheet.
In summary, I think Oclaro has a set of customers that like doing business with Oclaro. I think March quarter earnings will beat, probably not by much, but I think they guide above $110m. I think this represents a great risk reward profile.
JWells
Breakout On Towerstream $TWER
Towerstream, a micro cap, emerging utility, has broken out today. The stock has broken resistance going back to October where angry shareholders (about 10 million shares) should be completely out now. There is small resistance at various price points into the low 5's. But nothing heavy like we just went through. Jeff Thompson, CEO, is giving a presentation tomorrow at the Deutsche Bank Media and Telco Conference 3pm. What we will be looking for is how the core business is doing and some color on how well Daily Deals are helping people sign up for Smart-Fi (Not sure this is going to be huge business). Also, we are looking for the puts and takes of the Multi Family dwelling units biz (lots of potential here) and temporary Wifi business for one time events and construction sites. But, I don't suspect we will hear anything on this, the holy grail for Towerstream is the mobile offload business that has yet to pass, but I suspect Sprint and the other smaller carriers will sign up soon. News of a deal of this sorts will send shares into the mid to high single digits.
JWells.
JWells.
Cisco's Acquisition Implications on Oclaro
Cisco will acquire the private company Lightwire. Lightwire makes, as far as I can tell, one product-a 10G optical transceiver untested at Telco's ("Lightwire’s patented modulation and optical-coupling building blocks, combined with integration capability of CMOS Photonics, enable advanced modulation schemes. This makes possible telecom-grade performance — at lower costs to ensure success in datacomm networks").
http://lightwire.com/technology/.
Unproven technology with Telco's makes this a long term investment for Cisco. I have no doubt in Cisco's ability to "fasttrack" this technology, but the Telco's move at glacial speed. I doubt we will see, over the next year, any erosion in 10G market share from Oclaro.
I am confident that over the next 6 months, Oclaro (OCLR) will produce significant price appreciation.
JWells
http://lightwire.com/technology/.
Unproven technology with Telco's makes this a long term investment for Cisco. I have no doubt in Cisco's ability to "fasttrack" this technology, but the Telco's move at glacial speed. I doubt we will see, over the next year, any erosion in 10G market share from Oclaro.
I am confident that over the next 6 months, Oclaro (OCLR) will produce significant price appreciation.
JWells
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